When your backup goaltender (of questionable worth – ask the half dozen or so other teams he’s played for) puts up some decent numbers (for a backup) – like holding a bottom feeding team to 2 goals – you expect to win, or at least put on a good show.  Instead they don’t find the net.  Not once.  People are quick to point out how the team suffers with Vanek out of the lineup, but face it, if one guy is your whole offensive output you’re not a team in very good shape.

Sure, Afinogenov hasn’t been having a banner year.  Then he strained his groin.  However he’s been cleared to play medically for 10 days now and still he has remained a healthy scratch, still sitting on the IR list.  I know Ruff wants to make a point, that if you’re not producing you’re not going to play, but this is ridiculous.  No one on his team is producing.  He’s holding back an asset ready to get out there and earn his spot back.  What, is he afraid of sending someone like Matt Ellis back to Portland which he’d have to do in order to reactivate Afinogenov?  Well I have news for you, Ellis belongs in Portland.  In 109 career NHL games he only has 17 points.  That’s .15 points for game in case you were wondering.  That’s not where you’re going to find offensive production.  We need points on the board Mr. Ruff!  We need some creative line juggling.  We need firey speeches, and wrath of god-like threats to the players, the staff, and any one else out there who will listen.  We need a Buffalo Sabres team that has fire in their belly, not the current Sabres team who couldn’t seem to care that they are hanging on to the last playoff spot by a thread.

In the wake of all the other coaches who have been sent packing maybe, just maybe Buffalo should start doing the same thing.  Afterall Lindry Ruff is a proponent of benching those who aren’t performing up to par – and lets face it, right now he is the one who’s not up to par.  Get that fire back Mr. Ruff, or open up the classifieds and start looking for work.

Tonight the Sabres look to snap the skid – unfortunately they’re facing a tough Ottawa Senators squad so it’s no easy task for them.  I have to wait until Sunday to see of my hockey team can get things back on track.  Hopefully we’ll shake of the new years blues and get back to rockin’ and a rollin’ soon!

Of course I had hoped things might be a little bit better tonight.  Their defense was a little tighter, but still pretty lousy as they dropped a 2-3 decision against the Islanders.  There’s still 80 games to go in the regular season, but starting out with a pair of loses isn’t exactly an encouraging way to start off the season.

Hey, there’s only about 180 days until the start of the next season.

Eastern Conference:

Buffalo Sabres (1) vs. New York Rangers (6) – Okay, you know who I’m going to pick in this one. No, in years past I didn’t always pick the Sabres out of loyalty. There were times I just didn’t think they had what it took; I wanted them to win but I wouldn’t have counted on it. This year is different. After a battered and bruised Sabres squad pulled its way to game 7 of the conference finals it makes me believe this healthy squad (the same core group as last season) is the real deal. I don’t want to take anything away from the Rangers. No matter who you play a sweep is one hell of a statement to make, and the Rangers made it loudly. They played physical. Sean Avery single handedly threw Atlanta’s top line off their game. This is where I give the Sabres the edge though – which line do you throw off? It’s going to be hard to target just one line when each night a different group of guys steps up. Still the Rangers are going to put Miller to the test. They are going to pepper him from every angle and with some big bodies sitting in front of them he is going to have to cover every shot – the Rangers will eat you alive if you give them second and third chances on net. The biggest flaw the Rangers have is in net. Lundqvist is not the goalie he has led you to believe. Yes, since 2007 started he has played an amazing game, he’s been a stabilizing force, he’s kept the Rangers in games that a few months ago he would have let slip through the cracks. He had a great first round, but I really feel the dam has to give. If the Sabres can pepper him early it might be enough to crack the shell and knock him down to the subpar performances of the first half of the season. This is going to be a tough series, but I’m calling the Sabres in six.

New Jersey Devils (2) vs. Ottawa Senators (4) – This is going to be the series to watch. Ottawa made short work of team Crosby (not the sweep I had wanted, but hey, can’t have it all). Not only did they shut down a lot of the Penguins young guns, Ottawa’s veteran players flat out skated the youngin’s. The Senators are a gritty team and now that their top line has gotten back on track they are going to be tearing up the ice. This is a team that can score goals. Fortunately for New Jersey they have Brodeur. Once again he proved he is a future hall of famer by taming the explosive Penguins offense, turning away a flurry of shots. His focus, his experience, and his raw talent energizes his team. This is not going to be a wild west shoot out of a game. This is going to be a physical, old school hockey game where every inch of ice is fought for. Both teams have a balance between offense and defense. Both teams have a very similar core. This series is going to come down to who has that one guy who is going to come out of nowhere and surprise everyone. With top line being matched against top line I wouldn’t count on any of them to be the big difference maker in the series. Will Parise continue his amazing playoff run and give the Devils two lines of scoring options, or will some third liner for Ottawa solve the mystery to beating Brodeur? All I know is each and every single game is going to be a big question mark that has no answer until the final whistle blows. Both teams can shrug off loses and stay on its game. In my mind it comes down to playoff experience and that’s where Jersey is a titan. Jersey wins in 7.

Western Conference:

Detroit Red Wings (1) vs. San Jose Sharks (5) – At first it looked like the Red Wings were going to sweep through their series with Calgary. Then they let Calgary win back to back games at home. In a tightly contested game six the Wings got back in to proper form and were able to hold back a less than desperate showing by the Flames who looked as if they had given up by the third period. Detroit outshot Calgary by a wide margin. The Kipper is what kept Calgary alive – San Jose, however, doesn’t have him. What the Sharks do have is Nabokov, a solid starting net minder. However his flashes of brilliance are few and far between. Against a high octane team like Detroit he’s going to have to find a level of play he never knew he had. If San Jose’s defense can tie up Detroit and keep the shot count low then they’ll have a chance. They have what it takes to rattle Hasek. I watched him play with the Sabres for years and nothing threw him off his game quicker than wave after wave of players crashing the net. It’s what the Sharks offense is built to do. At times their offensive style may not be pretty, but it got them to round 2 in a hurry. Getting under Hasek’s skin quickly will be a key for San Jose. If they can rattle him night after night they might just have a chance. This is going to be a wild series. Hard hitting, fast transitions, and gritty intensity. Detroit has the players who can match the Sharks physical game – but can an ice time leader, Chelios keep up that intensity at 45 years of age? This won’t be the prettiest of series, but Detroit is a capable team that can match styles of play against just about any team in the NHL. The Red Wings win this one in 6.

Anaheim Ducks (2) vs. Vancouver Canucks (3) – Fool me once Vancouver.. fool me once. While Anaheim was busy playing musical goaltenders, Vancouver was given up a 3 games to 1 lead. Fortunately for them they rallied and gave the fans a show beating Dallas 4-1 in last nights game 7. That makes 14 times Dallas has failed to come back when down 3 games to 1. No one said the playoffs were easy. Vancouver had back to back scoreless games, 8 periods in all without registering a single tally. Quite frankly they got lucky to move on. However that luck will turn in to determination and motivation. They dodged a bullet and now have to use that momentum to come out of the gates full speed against a Ducks team that literally beat the Wild in to submission. The Ducks aren’t subtle. You know what to expect. A physical style of play where they are going to tie it up in the corners, pinch hard against the boards and try to wear your top line down. The Canucks are already worn down from a 7 game series that saw more than its fair share of overtime moments. With only a couple days off before the second round begins its going to be a physically challenged bench. Still, this is the playoffs and you don’t make it to the second round by folding like a house of cards. When their top line is on the Sedin boys make magic happen. Watching them play at the top of their game together makes you willing to believe that twins can read each others thoughts as it seems like they are always aware of the others presence on the ice. They are lethal. They will also be a target of the hard hitting Ducks defense. If they can match the physical intensity of the Ducks the Sedin’s could pull Vancouver in to round three. I disbelieved once, but won’t make that mistake again. Vancouver in 7.

For the Sabres it’s four down, twelve to go.  Sixteen is the magic number of wins.  Sixteen wins gets you Lord Stanley’s cup.  I don’t care what people say, it is the finest trophy in all of sports.  It’s etched with history – the names of all those others who lifted the cup in triumph.  It’s inspiring.  The other series are nearly over.  Today the Devils won thus settling the dust in the first round for the East.  Next up the Sabres face another New York metro area team as they meet the Rangers.  Sure, the Ranger’s surprised me with how handily they beat Atlanta.  I was pretty sure they would beat Atlanta, I just didn’t expect them to sweep them as if the Thrashers didn’t even bother to field a team.  Still, I’m not worried.  I’ve seen the Rangers game.  The Sabres have what it takes to play against them.  No, they won’t roll over them, but I don’t expect this series to be a nail biter.  Really, the only team out there that worries me right now is the Ottawa Senators so I am hoping that the Devils take care of them so the boys from Buffalo won’t have to meet them in the conference finals.

I’m watching the Detroit vs. Calgary game right now.  This series has been ridiculous.  Basically the home team has gotten all the breaks, scored all the goals, dictated all the plays.  This game, in Calgary, is pretty tight though.  I was wondering how it would be after game 5 in which the Calgary backup goaltender went berserk and smashed his stick across someones chest.  Ouch.  Goalies have a big fuckin’ stick.  It’s a 1-1 game currently.  Even if the “only win at home” thing holds Detroit has the advantage as game 7 is in Detroit.  Though Detroit smells blood.  A win tonight and they move on.  They don’t want to give Calgary any chance to get back in to this one and I don’t blame them.  The Flames are a tough team – and Detroit players are already feeling blue from last seasons early exit.  They really want to avoid that one.

The Isles have been surprising. I didn’t expect the Sabres to simply roll over them, the Isles have a good netminder back between the pipes, and have several players (a couple of them former Sabres) who can turn a busted play around in an instant. Still, I didn’t expect to see the Isles come out and play the gutsy and determined hockey that they’ve been playing. They are countering the Sabres speedy style of play, forcing turn overs in the neutral zone, and forcing all the traffic to the outside. One of the weaknesses of the Sabres this season is the lack of the big body to put in front of the goaltender, especially on the power play. The Isles are keeping the crease clear which is allowing Dipietro to see every shot coming his way.

Game 3 the Sabres got their wind back, you could tell they were hungry for that wind. They might have underestimated the Isles in game 2, but that didn’t show in this one. They controlled most of the play – especially in the third period when they held the Isles to only 2 shots on goal. They’re a group of players who have come too far since the lock out to see an early exit from the playoffs. I think the Isles win reminded them that they need to play with determination and intensity every second of every game. In the Stanley Cup playoffs there is no such thing as the sure thing. The cup is up for grabs – the team that is willing to put it all out on the line is the one that will walk away with it.

Eastern Conference:

Buffalo Sabres (1) vs. New York Islanders (8) – I don’t want to sound like a fanboy, but its hard not to after the season that the Sabres have put together. They won the President’s trophy, they led the league in scoring, they have 7 players who have at least 20 goals, and they have a stable netminder. What more could you want in a team? The Isles aren’t without their fair share of talent, but their lines don’t run as deep. And with a goalie called up from the AHL to tend the net it’s going to take a miracle (well actually more like 4 miracles) for the Isles to pull off this upset. Sabres take the series in 5.

New Jersey Devils (2) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (7) – I’ve been reading all over how a lot of pundits are predicting this to be the big upset in the East. Jersey has been struggling through some injuries problems and their offense is less than stellar this season. In fact of all 16 playoff teams Jersey is dead last in total goals scored. They play a very conservative, some would say boring, style of play. Say what you will, even with this being the “new NHL” Jersey does not allow shots on net. When shots do get through there is Martin Brodeur to turn them all away. Despite some quick skating, deadly shooting offense on the part of the Bolts, Brodeur is going to put on a real show and pull the limping Devils offense through the first round. Jersey takes the series in 7.

Atlanta Thrashers (3) vs. New York Rangers (6) – This is the hardest game in the East for me to predict. All season long both these teams stayed under the radar, even when they were playing top notch hockey. Both are teams the hockey writers seem to have skipped over in favor of a lot of teams with big flash. Either of these teams is capable of surprising an opponent so its funny they should meet one another in the first round. The Thrashers made a lot of last minute trades to add some experience and depth to the team. The Rangers spent this season moving away from their traditional habit of acquiring experienced players at the end of their career, instead they acquired several players with a good mix of speed, puck handling, and physical play. All in all they appear to be when of the most balanced teams in the NHL. I think what’s going to win this one is the Rangers ability to keep the space in front of their net clear. They are aggressive in their own end and don’t give you much time to set up a play. The Rangers will take this one in 6.

Ottawa Senators (4) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (5) – This is the series everyone is expecting to be a high scoring spectacle that goes down to the bitter end. Personally, I say get out the brooms because this one is going to be a clean sweep for the Sens. Pittsburgh has only one game plan, get it to Sidney Crosby and let him score. In the regular season, playing a host of different teams its easy to rely on a big gun to carry you through. Will his regular season point dominance translate to big play off numbers? Not with the team the Pens have. Ottawa has the tools to shut down the Crosby line and unless some unsung hero steps up in Pittsburgh they will get dismantled by a deep Ottawa team. Ottawa will be coming at them from every angle. Crosby may be a scoring dynamo, but Ottawa’s Dany Heatly is a scoring dynamo who can jump back on defense and cancel out the man advantage in the blink of an eye. The sheer experience, and hunger to avenge last years second round play off exit is going to make Ottawa a force of nature. The Sens take the series in 4.

Western Conference:

Detroit Red Wings (1) vs. Calgary Flames (8) – I’ve heard it said that it should be obvious that the Red Wings are going to walk through the Flames. I’ve heard others say it’s going to be a tight battle with a possible upset. The Wings have a history of being upset – their older cast of characters worn down by a long regular season. I say throw that history right out the window. The Wings are a team built to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup. But before you go assuming I’m calling a sweep on this one hold your horses. The Flames, when they play their game, are a tough team to beat. They aren’t going to lay down for anyone. They have a team that will play each and every period with tenacity. They have a goalie who has proven he can face any shooter and come out on top. If it weren’t for their rather streaky nature this would be a tough one to call. But I say Detroit’s experience and poise is going to keep them consistently in the winning side of things. The Red Wings will wrap this series up in 6.

Anaheim Ducks (2) vs. Minnesota Wild (7) – I didn’t expect to see both of these teams in the playoffs let alone playing one another. The Ducks might have lost the Mighty from their title (bye bye Disney affiliation) but they sure haven’t lost a step in their play. They are a tough team to play physically. They have big bodies on defense and up on the offensive line as well. They crash the net, they run through the opposition, and the move bodies all over the ice. The Wild, if they are to win, need to capitalize on every power play chance they are given. They are going to have to get on the board early and then dig in to weather the offensive storm of the Ducks. Still, I think the Ducks physical ability is the X-factor in this contest. The Wild don’t have the speed to counter the hard hitting play of Anaheim. The Ducks take this series in 6.

Vancouver Cannucks (3) vs. Dallas Stars (6) – I have three words for this series: defense, defense, defense. In the high octane NHL of this season these are two teams who apparently missed the goal scoring memos. Both teams play a tight defensive game that capitalizes on the mistakes of their opponents. This probably won’t be the most exciting series to watch for people who like seeing the red light come on. This one is going to be like a chess match with each team waiting to see who makes the first mistake. Expect a lot of low scoring one goal games that are going to be well played right up until the final buzzer. Marty Turco’s playoff experience in net will make all the difference in this closely contested affair. The Stars win this one in 7.

Nashville Predators (4) vs. San Jose Sharks (5) – Wait a second, didn’t I see this one last year? Yup. In 2006 these two teams played each other in the opening round, both in the same playoff positions they are in this year. The Predators play a rough and tumble style of offensive hockey which can yield more penalty minutes than they’d like, especially since the San Jose squad are absolutely stunning with the man advantage. If the Predators can stay out of the box they have a lot of capable players up front who can prove to be quite dangerous. Both teams will be starting netminders who haven’t been playing up to form. Both teams have backup netminders who are more than capable of stepping up if the number one man can’t get the job done. Nashvile is under pressure to do well. In fact rumors are swirling that an early exit from the playoffs could spell the end of the franchise in Nashville with many other markets becoming hockey hungry. Nashville needs this win and every player on the bench knows it. Despite this motivation I keep coming back to their penalty woes and San Jose’s ability to capitalize on them. The Sharks take this one in 6.

So there you have it, my predictions for the first round. We’ll see how close I came after this round when I make my predictions for round two. It all starts this Wednesday night.